The chance of El Nino developing later this year has been lowered, according to the authorities.

The Bureau of Meteorology has revised its prediction of an El Nino weather event, after forecasting at least a 70 per cent chance of the pattern developing in spring.

The Bureau’s manager of climate predictions says it is now closer to a 50 per cent chance.

Given that in a normal year there is about a 25 per cent chance of an El Nino, BOM says current indications show about double the normal risk.

The El Nino phenomenon is a major driver of weather patterns around the planet, typically causing droughts in western Pacific counties such as Indonesia and Australia, but triggering downpours in normally dry regions including Ecuador and Peru.

El Nino activity is defined by warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the newest climate modelling shows temperatures in the region have dropped.

Reports say about five of the eight models BOM has surveyed still suggest an El Nino event may occur.

The Bureau has downgraded its El Nino “Alert” status to “Watch”, indicating that if the system did develop, its impact would not be as strong.